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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 4

New York Giants 14 – Washington Commanders 29

What Actually Happened

(10:27) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass incomplete short middle to 17-W.Robinson (20-Q.Martin). ** Injury Update: NYG-6-J.Dart has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +2.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.65 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 4, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model