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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 18 at the 33

New York Giants 14 – Washington Commanders 22

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 37-Y.Koo 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-15-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.01 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 33, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 43, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model