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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 13 at the 38

Washington Commanders 3 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(2:20) 10-T.Way punts 29 yards to NYG 9, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.15 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 38, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -0.32 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 47, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model