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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 33

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(7:04) 37-Y.Koo 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-15-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.47 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 33, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 43, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP