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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 82

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(:43) 15-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to WAS 33, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-J.Lane to NYG 47 for 20 yards (53-D.Muasau).

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.67 EP
  • 22% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 82, worth -4.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 40, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.39 EP