Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- QB edge to MIA: Daniel Jones (IND) -0.110 vs Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +0.155 EPA/dropback
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- IND offense: -0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
- IND defense: +0.041 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
- MIA offense: +0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 1
MIA
IND
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 27 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:41 FG IND (10:41) 3-S.Shrader 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. MIA 0 – IND 3
- Q2 15:00 TD IND (15:00) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass deep right to 11-M.Pittman for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – IND 9
- Q2 12:05 TD IND (12:05) 17-D.Jones right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – IND 16
- Q2 00:03 FG IND (:03) 3-S.Shrader 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. MIA 0 – IND 20
- Q3 07:33 FG IND (7:33) 3-S.Shrader 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. MIA 0 – IND 23
- Q4 10:16 TD IND (10:16) 17-D.Jones right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – IND 29
- Q4 06:29 TD MIA (6:29) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 28-D.Achane for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – IND 30
- Q4 02:28 FG IND (2:28) 3-S.Shrader 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. MIA 8 – IND 33
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 IND 4th & 5 at the 6Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%
(10:41) 3-S.Shrader 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
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Q2 MIA 4th & 14 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(6:53) 16-J.Bailey punts 42 yards to IND 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.
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Q2 IND 4th & 2 at the 42Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58% p(FG) 57%
(2:42) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 1-J.Downs to MIA 36 for 6 yards (9-I.Melifonwu).
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Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 95%
(:03) 3-S.Shrader 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
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Q3 IND 4th & 9 at the 10Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EPp(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%
(7:33) 3-S.Shrader 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
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Q3 MIA 4th & 6 at the 31Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 80%
(4:35) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short left to 80-T.Conner.
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Q3 IND 4th & 2 at the 46Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58% p(FG) 47%
(2:16) (Shotgun) 21-D.Giddens up the middle to MIA 40 for 6 yards (20-J.Brooks; 25-T.Dodson).
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Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 17Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 95%
(12:11) 17-D.Jones right guard to MIA 16 for 1 yard (15-Ja.Phillips).
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Q4 MIA 4th & 11 at the 11Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%
(6:29) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 28-D.Achane for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 30 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 82%
(2:28) 3-S.Shrader 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.