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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 46

Indianapolis Colts 23 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(2:16) (Shotgun) 21-D.Giddens up the middle to MIA 40 for 6 yards (20-J.Brooks; 25-T.Dodson).

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.04 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -0.63 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 13, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model