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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 6

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(10:41) 3-S.Shrader 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.56 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 6, worth +0.48 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP