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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 30

Indianapolis Colts 30 – Miami Dolphins 8

What Actually Happened

(2:28) 3-S.Shrader 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +3.51 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 40, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model