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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2025-09-07 · 20:20 New Era Field, Orchard Park US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.5 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

BAL
51.8%
BUF
48.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: +0.225 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • BUF offense: +0.226 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • BUF defense: +0.084 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • QB edge to BAL: Josh Allen (BUF) +0.253 vs Lamar Jackson (BAL) +0.329 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

BAL 26
–
BUF 25
Projected margin: BAL by 1 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

BAL

Patrick Ricard FB Out Calf
Isaiah Likely TE Out Foot

BUF

Tyler Bass K Out Hip
Tre'Davious White CB Doubtful Groin

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 40
–
BUF 41

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 30 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:23 TD BUF (11:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 86-D.Kincaid for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 0 – BUF 6
  • Q1 03:43 FG BAL (3:43) 33-T.Loop 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 3 – BUF 7
  • Q2 13:41 TD BAL (13:41) 22-D.Henry right tackle for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 9 – BUF 7
  • Q2 09:51 TD BAL (9:51) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson left tackle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 16 – BUF 7
  • Q2 02:51 FG BUF (2:51) 15-M.Prater 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-40-B.Robbins. BAL 17 – BUF 10
  • Q2 00:35 FG BAL (:35) 33-T.Loop 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 20 – BUF 10
  • Q2 00:01 FG BUF (:01) 15-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-40-B.Robbins. BAL 20 – BUF 13
  • Q3 12:54 TD BAL (12:54) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 4-Z.Flowers for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 26 – BUF 13
  • Q3 07:51 TD BUF (7:51) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 4-J.Cook up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 27 – BUF 19
  • Q3 01:14 TD BAL (1:14) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 10-D.Hopkins for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 33 – BUF 19
  • Q4 12:56 TD BUF (12:56) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 34 – BUF 25
  • Q4 11:50 TD BAL (11:50) 22-D.Henry left tackle for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 40 – BUF 25
  • Q4 04:05 TD BUF (4:05) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 0-K.Coleman for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [53-K.Van Noy]. BAL 40 – BUF 31
  • Q4 02:00 TD BUF (2:00) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 40 – BUF 38
  • Q4 00:03 FG BUF (:03) 15-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-40-B.Robbins. BAL 40 – BUF 41

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (1:49) 40-B.Robbins punts 43 yards to BAL 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-28-S.Franklin.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 6 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (12:14) 40-B.Robbins punts 48 yards to BAL 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 83-L.Wester to BAL 31 for 6 yards (39-C.Lewis).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 5 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (2:51) 15-M.Prater 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-40-B.Robbins.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 10 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (6:25) 11-J.Stout punts 51 yards to BUF 16, Center-46-N.Moore. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 16 for no gain (38-K.Martin).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 8 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (2:50) 40-B.Robbins punts 39 yards to BAL 32, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 83-L.Wester.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 16 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (9:27) 40-B.Robbins punts 28 yards to BAL 35, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-69-R.Ferguson.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (7:27) 11-J.Stout punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 2 at the 10 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 97%

    (4:05) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 0-K.Coleman for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [53-K.Van Noy].

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 3 at the 62 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (1:33) 11-J.Stout punts 42 yards to BUF 20, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 14 at the 14 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (:03) 15-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-40-B.Robbins.