Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 73

Buffalo Bills 7 – Baltimore Ravens 10

(12:14) 40-B.Robbins punts 48 yards to BAL 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 83-L.Wester to BAL 31 for 6 yards (39-C.Lewis).

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.85 EP
52% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 73, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model