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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 62

Baltimore Ravens 40 – Buffalo Bills 38

What Actually Happened

(1:33) 11-J.Stout punts 42 yards to BUF 20, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +0.59 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 62, worth -2.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 21, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP