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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 59

Baltimore Ravens 40 – Buffalo Bills 25

What Actually Happened

(7:27) 11-J.Stout punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.17 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 59, worth -2.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 18, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP