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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 10

Buffalo Bills 25 – Baltimore Ravens 40

What Actually Happened

(4:05) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 0-K.Coleman for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [53-K.Van Noy].

The Three Options

GO +2.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.23 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 10, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model