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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 14 at the 14

Buffalo Bills 38 – Baltimore Ravens 40

What Actually Happened

(:03) 15-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-40-B.Robbins.

The Three Options

GO +1.95 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.94 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 14, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +2.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24, worth +0.03 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model