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Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
Sunday 2025-10-19 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌧 Rain Spread 2.5 O/U 34.5

Win Probability

MIA
61.5%
CLE
38.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.227 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to MIA: Dillon Gabriel (CLE) -0.175 vs Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +0.188 EPA/dropback
  • MIA defense: +0.107 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • MIA offense: -0.027 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Wind 17 mph

Predicted Final Score

MIA 23
–
CLE 19
Projected margin: MIA by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

MIA

Elijah Campbell S Out Quadricep
Tyrel Dodson LB Questionable Concussion
Storm Duck CB Questionable Ankle

CLE

David Njoku TE Out Knee
Jack Conklin T Questionable Concussion
Joe Tryon-Shoyinka DE Questionable Hip
Mike Hall Jr. DT Questionable Knee
Gage Larvadain WR Questionable Concussion
Mason Graham DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 6
–
CLE 31

Prediction missed by 29 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:21 FG CLE (2:21) 25-A.Szmyt 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. MIA 0 – CLE 3
  • Q2 14:18 FG MIA (14:18) 47-R.Patterson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey. MIA 3 – CLE 3
  • Q2 11:28 TD CLE (11:28) 56-L.Wypler reported in as eligible. 10-Q.Judkins right guard for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-29-M.Fitzpatrick was injured during the play. MIA 3 – CLE 9
  • Q2 06:08 TD CLE (6:08) (Shotgun) 56-L.Wypler and 74-T.Jenkins reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 10-Q.Judkins. 10-Q.Judkins up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 3 – CLE 16
  • Q2 00:03 FG MIA (:03) 47-R.Patterson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey. MIA 6 – CLE 17
  • Q3 14:56 TD CLE (14:56) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left intended for 28-D.Achane INTERCEPTED by 7-T.Campbell at MIA 34. 7-T.Campbell for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – CLE 23
  • Q4 10:59 TD CLE (10:59) (Shotgun) 56-L.Wypler and 74-T.Jenkins reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 10-Q.Judkins. 10-Q.Judkins right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – CLE 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 3 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (12:47) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback. PENALTY on MIA-32-J.Brents, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 20.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 16 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (9:11) 16-J.Bailey punts 50 yards to CLE 24, Center-49-J.Cardona. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 31 for 7 yards (49-J.Cardona).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 96%

    (2:21) 25-A.Szmyt 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 9 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 94%

    (14:18) 47-R.Patterson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 13 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:10) 16-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to CLE 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 19 at the 99
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (3:03) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 50 yards to MIA 49, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 6-M.Washington to CLE 40 for 11 yards (50-R.Sunahara; 42-E.Mascarenas-Arnold).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 6 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

    (:03) 47-R.Patterson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 19 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:43) 16-J.Bailey punts 48 yards to CLE 41, Center-49-J.Cardona. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 41 for no gain (27-E.Bonner). PENALTY on MIA-82-D.Eskridge, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 41. Penalty on MIA-27-E.Bonner, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, declined.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 4 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 55%

    (10:33) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 30 yards to MIA 8, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-17-J.Baker.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 1 at the 83
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74%

    (8:19) 31-O.Gordon right guard to MIA 19 for 2 yards (49-C.Schwesinger; 17-J.Baker).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 8 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 63%

    (3:17) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 6-M.Washington to CLE 28 for 7 yards (9-G.Delpit) [95-M.Garrett]. MIA-6-M.Washington was injured during the play.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 20 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 35%

    (12:36) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to MIA 5, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-31-D.McMillon. ** Injury Update: MIA-6-M.Washington has returned to the game.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 11 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 40%

    (8:24) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:53) 16-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to CLE 38, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 14 at the 44 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 38%

    (3:48) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 35 yards to MIA 9, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 4 at the 85 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (2:22) (Shotgun) 14-Q.Ewers pass short right to 82-D.Eskridge to MIA 20 for 5 yards (93-S.Harris).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 19 at the 49 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 25%

    (:42) (Shotgun) 14-Q.Ewers sacked at MIA 41 for -10 yards (31-D.McMillon).