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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 60

Cleveland Browns 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(12:47) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback. PENALTY on MIA-32-J.Brents, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.78 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 60, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 19, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model