4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 83

Miami Dolphins 6 – Cleveland Browns 24

What Actually Happened

(8:19) 31-O.Gordon right guard to MIA 19 for 2 yards (49-C.Schwesinger; 17-J.Baker).

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.18 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 83, worth -5.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.23 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 41, worth -2.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model