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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 20 at the 45

Cleveland Browns 24 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(12:36) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to MIA 5, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-31-D.McMillon. ** Injury Update: MIA-6-M.Washington has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.38 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 45, worth -1.85 EP
KICK -0.79 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model