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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 43

Cleveland Browns 31 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(8:24) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.83 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 43, worth -1.72 EP
KICK -0.64 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model