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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 14 at the 44

Cleveland Browns 31 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(3:48) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 35 yards to MIA 9, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.43 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 44, worth -1.62 EP
KICK -0.57 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model