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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 12

Cleveland Browns 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(2:21) 25-A.Szmyt 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +2.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.66 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 12, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 22, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP