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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 19 at the 99

Cleveland Browns 17 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(3:03) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 50 yards to MIA 49, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 6-M.Washington to CLE 40 for 11 yards (50-R.Sunahara; 42-E.Mascarenas-Arnold).

The Three Options

GO -4.39 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.80 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 99, worth -6.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

PUNT -2.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 53, worth -2.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model