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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 38

Cleveland Browns 24 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(10:33) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 30 yards to MIA 8, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-17-J.Baker.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.76 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 38, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.26 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 47, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP