Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 15 at the 85

Miami Dolphins 6 – Cleveland Browns 31

(6:53) 16-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to CLE 38, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.

The Three Options

GO -2.98 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.26 EP
69% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 85, worth -4.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model