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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
Sunday 2025-10-19 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

PHI
56.0%
MIN
44.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: +0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • MIN offense: -0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to PHI: Carson Wentz (MIN) -0.066 vs Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.122 EPA/dropback
  • MIN defense: -0.081 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • MIN on 4 more days rest than PHI

Predicted Final Score

PHI 25
–
MIN 22
Projected margin: PHI by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

PHI

Grant Calcaterra TE Out Oblique
Landon Dickerson G Questionable Ankle
Jalen Carter DT Questionable Heel

MIN

Andrew Van Ginkel LB Out Neck
Brian O'Neill T Questionable Knee
Blake Cashman LB Questionable Hamstring
Michael Jurgens C Questionable Hamstring
J.J. McCarthy QB Questionable Ankle
Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins DE Questionable Hip
Tyler Batty DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 28
–
MIN 22

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:07 TD PHI (7:07) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – MIN 0
  • Q1 02:08 FG MIN (2:08) 16-W.Reichard 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. PHI 7 – MIN 3
  • Q2 13:35 TD PHI (13:35) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 58-J.Hunt [98-J.Carter] at MIN 42. 58-J.Hunt for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – MIN 3
  • Q2 06:37 FG MIN (6:37) 16-W.Reichard 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. PHI 14 – MIN 6
  • Q3 09:05 FG MIN (9:05) 16-W.Reichard 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. PHI 14 – MIN 9
  • Q3 08:17 TD PHI (8:17) 74-F.Johnson reported in as eligible. 1-J.Hurts pass deep middle to 6-D.Smith for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 20 – MIN 9
  • Q3 03:42 TD MIN (3:42) Direct snap to 27-J.Mason. 27-J.Mason left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 21 – MIN 15
  • Q4 10:10 FG MIN (10:10) 16-W.Reichard 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. PHI 21 – MIN 19
  • Q4 06:40 TD PHI (6:40) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep middle to 11-A.Brown for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: PHI-26-S.Barkley has returned to the game. PHI 27 – MIN 19
  • Q4 02:00 FG MIN (2:00) 16-W.Reichard 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. PHI 28 – MIN 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (11:30) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to PHI 46 for 1 yard (61-J.Redmond; 50-L.Rodriguez).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 4 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 69%

    (7:07) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 6 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (:38) 10-B.Mann punts 46 yards to MIN 16, Center-57-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 4-M.Price.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 7 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 30%

    (9:44) 10-B.Mann punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Touchback.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 11 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%

    (6:37) 16-W.Reichard 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 9 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:30) 10-B.Mann punts 47 yards to MIN 26, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 4-M.Price to MIN 32 for 6 yards (48-P.Johnson).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 4 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 37%

    (1:06) 17-R.Wright punts 34 yards to PHI 16, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 9 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (9:05) 16-W.Reichard 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 5 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 90%

    (14:19) 4-J.Elliott 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 12 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%

    (10:10) 16-W.Reichard 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 2 at the 15 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 96%

    (2:58) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 3-J.Addison pushed ob at PHI 10 for 5 yards (33-C.DeJean).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 11 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 97%

    (2:00) 16-W.Reichard 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.