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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 37

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(7:07) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.59 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 37, worth -2.20 EP
KICK +0.01 EP
  • 69% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model