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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 50

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(1:06) 17-R.Wright punts 34 yards to PHI 16, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.64 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 50, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.68 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP