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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 17

Minnesota Vikings 16 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(10:10) 16-W.Reichard 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.72 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 17, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 27, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model