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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 73

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(4:30) 10-B.Mann punts 47 yards to MIN 26, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 4-M.Price to MIN 32 for 6 yards (48-P.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.94 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 73, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 31, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model