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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 11

Minnesota Vikings 19 – Philadelphia Eagles 28

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 16-W.Reichard 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.87 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 22, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model