4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 10

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(9:05) 16-W.Reichard 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.50 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 10, worth +0.16 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model