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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 62

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(:38) 10-B.Mann punts 46 yards to MIN 16, Center-57-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 4-M.Price.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.15 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 62, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model