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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
@
ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
Sunday 2025-10-19 · 16:25 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -7.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

GB
52.9%
ARI
47.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • QB edge to GB: Jacoby Brissett (ARI) -0.017 vs Jordan Love (GB) +0.207 EPA/dropback
  • ARI offense: +0.070 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

GB 26
–
ARI 25
Projected margin: GB by 1 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

GB

Devonte Wyatt DT Out Knee
Christian Watson WR Out Knee
Lukas Van Ness DE Out Foot
Brandon McManus K Questionable Quadricep
Keisean Nixon CB Questionable Illness
Josh Jacobs RB Questionable Illness
Nate Hobbs CB Questionable Knee
Zach Bako-Bewele T Questionable Oblique
Dontayvion Wicks WR Questionable Ankle
Jacob Monk C Questionable Hamstring
Anthony Belton T Questionable Ankle

ARI

Emari Demercado RB Out Ankle
Walter Nolen DT Out Calf
Zay Jones WR Questionable Knee
Will Hernandez G Questionable Knee
Kyler Murray QB Questionable Foot
Darius Robinson DT Questionable Pectoral
Kitan Crawford S Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 27
–
ARI 23

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:38 FG ARI (7:38) 38-C.Ryland 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-P.O'Donnell. GB 0 – ARI 3
  • Q2 09:10 FG GB (9:10) 35-L.Havrisik 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 3 – ARI 3
  • Q2 05:06 FG ARI (5:06) 38-C.Ryland 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-P.O'Donnell. GB 3 – ARI 6
  • Q2 00:12 TD ARI (:12) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 3 – ARI 12
  • Q2 00:01 FG GB (:01) 35-L.Havrisik 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 6 – ARI 13
  • Q3 09:53 TD GB (9:53) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 12 – ARI 13
  • Q3 04:23 TD ARI (4:23) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 85-T.McBride for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – ARI 19
  • Q4 15:00 TD GB (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 19 – ARI 20
  • Q4 09:02 FG ARI (9:02) 38-C.Ryland 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-P.O'Donnell. GB 20 – ARI 23
  • Q4 01:54 TD GB (1:54) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 26 – ARI 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 14 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (7:38) 38-C.Ryland 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 2 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 35%

    (3:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 0-M.Golden ran ob at ARI 43 for 8 yards.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 5 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 67%

    (1:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep middle to 87-R.Doubs.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 10 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 57%

    (13:35) 39-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 7 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 96%

    (9:10) 35-L.Havrisik 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 5 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 91%

    (5:06) 38-C.Ryland 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 17 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:16) 19-D.Whelan punts 59 yards to ARI 16, Center-42-M.Orzech. 4-G.Dortch pushed ob at ARI 29 for 13 yards (30-C.Brooks).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (13:28) 19-D.Whelan punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 6 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (8:05) 19-D.Whelan punts 52 yards to ARI 28, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 32%

    (5:58) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to ARI 48 for no gain (58-I.McDuffie).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 2 at the 29 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 84%

    (2:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft pushed ob at ARI 14 for 15 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson). ** Injury Update: ARI-10-J.Sweat has returned to the game.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 11 at the 27 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.88 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 86%

    (:13) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep middle (29-X.McKinney) [52-R.Gary].