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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 17 at the 75

Green Bay Packers 3 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(3:16) 19-D.Whelan punts 59 yards to ARI 16, Center-42-M.Orzech. 4-G.Dortch pushed ob at ARI 29 for 13 yards (30-C.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.72 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model