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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 42

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 39-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.89 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.13 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model