Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 80

Green Bay Packers 20 – Arizona Cardinals 23

(8:05) 19-D.Whelan punts 52 yards to ARI 28, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.14 EP
53% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 80, worth -4.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model