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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 14 at the 14

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:38) 38-C.Ryland 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.87 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model