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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 27

Arizona Cardinals 23 – Green Bay Packers 27

What Actually Happened

(:13) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep middle (29-X.McKinney) [52-R.Gary].

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +2.05 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +2.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 37, worth -0.16 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.88 EP