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Seattle Seahawks

HC Mike Macdonald
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Tennessee Titans

HC Brian Callahan
Sunday 2025-11-23 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread -12.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

SEA
72.2%
TEN
27.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.177 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • SEA offense: +0.101 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Cam Ward (TEN): -0.234 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TEN defense: +0.135 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • SEA defense: -0.084 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 27
–
TEN 17
Projected margin: SEA by 10 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

SEA

Tyrice Knight LB Out Concussion
Tory Horton WR Out Shin
Ernest Jones LB Questionable Knee
Kenneth Walker III RB Questionable Glute
Grey Zabel G Questionable Knee
Robbie Ouzts FB Questionable Elbow

TEN

Xavier Woods S Out Hamstring
Kendell Brooks S Out Concussion
Elic Ayomanor WR Out Hamstring
Corey Levin C Questionable Neck
Darrell Baker Jr. CB Questionable Knee
Kalel Mullings RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 30
–
TEN 24

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:53 FG TEN (5:53) 6-J.Slye 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker. SEA 0 – TEN 3
  • Q1 02:18 FG SEA (2:18) 5-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 3 – TEN 3
  • Q2 11:11 TD SEA (11:11) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 9 – TEN 3
  • Q2 04:48 FG SEA (4:48) 5-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 13 – TEN 3
  • Q2 00:04 FG SEA (:04) 5-J.Myers 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 16 – TEN 3
  • Q3 13:23 TD SEA (13:23) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 22 – TEN 3
  • Q3 10:44 TD TEN (10:44) 4-M.Dickson punts 60 yards to TEN 10, Center-41-C.Stoll. 17-C.Dike for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 23 – TEN 9
  • Q3 06:46 TD SEA (6:46) 26-Z.Charbonnet left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 29 – TEN 10
  • Q3 01:23 TD TEN (1:23) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 30 – TEN 16
  • Q4 00:47 TD TEN (:47) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 17-C.Dike for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 30 – TEN 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 2 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 56%

    (12:09) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 84-G.Helm to SEA 32 for 10 yards (3-N.Emmanwori).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (5:53) 6-J.Slye 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 4 at the 28
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 85%

    (2:18) 5-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:55) 3-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to SEA 13, Center-46-M.Cox. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 33 for 20 yards (36-J.Chestnut).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 19 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (8:56) 3-J.Hekker punts 39 yards to TEN 45, Center-46-M.Cox. 22-R.Shaheed to TEN 26 for 19 yards (44-M.Brown).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (4:48) 5-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 61%

    (1:54) 36-J.Chestnut up the middle to SEA 40 for no gain (95-B.Pili; 42-D.Thomas).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 15 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (11:47) 3-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to SEA 31, Center-46-M.Cox. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 35 for 4 yards (21-M.Robinson; 36-J.Chestnut). PENALTY on SEA-19-J.Bobo, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 32.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 2 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 66%

    (10:44) 4-M.Dickson punts 60 yards to TEN 10, Center-41-C.Stoll. 17-C.Dike for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 3 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 59%

    (13:22) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at TEN 46 for -5 yards (49-A.Key).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 49%

    (11:30) 1-C.Ward up the middle to SEA 44 for 1 yard (95-B.Pili; 91-B.Murphy). Seattle challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 14 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (5:15) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to TEN 38, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 4 at the 56 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (4:17) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 11-V.Jefferson to SEA 45 for 11 yards (29-J.Jobe).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 6 at the 41 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 59%

    (2:59) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward scrambles up the middle to SEA 32 for 9 yards (42-D.Thomas).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 5 at the 27 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 86%

    (1:56) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 2-T.Spears to SEA 18 for 9 yards (21-D.Witherspoon; 42-D.Thomas).