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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 41

Tennessee Titans 17 – Seattle Seahawks 30

What Actually Happened

(2:59) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward scrambles up the middle to SEA 32 for 9 yards (42-D.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.65 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 41, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model