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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 40

Tennessee Titans 3 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 36-J.Chestnut up the middle to SEA 40 for no gain (95-B.Pili; 42-D.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.40 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 40, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.24 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model