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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 14 at the 84

Seattle Seahawks 30 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(5:15) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to TEN 38, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.43 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 84, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 42, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model