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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 45

Tennessee Titans 17 – Seattle Seahawks 30

What Actually Happened

(11:30) 1-C.Ward up the middle to SEA 44 for 1 yard (95-B.Pili; 91-B.Murphy). Seattle challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.17 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 45, worth -1.88 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model