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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 27

Tennessee Titans 17 – Seattle Seahawks 30

What Actually Happened

(1:56) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 2-T.Spears to SEA 18 for 9 yards (21-D.Witherspoon; 42-D.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +3.03 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 27, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 37, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.89 EP