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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 11

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(4:48) 5-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.37 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 22, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model