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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC Ben Johnson
Sunday 2025-11-23 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

PIT
38.8%
CHI
61.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI offense: +0.100 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • PIT offense: +0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 22
–
CHI 25
Projected margin: CHI by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

PIT

Alex Highsmith LB Doubtful Pectoral
Aaron Rodgers QB Questionable Wrist
Cameron Heyward DT Questionable Not injury related - resting player
Darius Slay CB Questionable Concussion

CHI

Tremaine Edmunds LB Out Groin
T.J. Edwards LB Out Hand
Travis Homer RB Out Hamstring
Noah Sewell LB Out Elbow
Roschon Johnson RB Out Thumb
Jaylon Johnson CB Questionable Groin
Kyler Gordon CB Questionable Calf
Jaquan Brisker S Questionable Shoulder
Theo Benedet T Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 28
–
CHI 31

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:32 TD CHI (8:32) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 2-D.Moore for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – CHI 6
  • Q1 00:35 TD PIT (:35) (Shotgun) 4-D.Metcalf left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – CHI 7
  • Q2 14:54 TD PIT (14:54) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at CHI -2 for -12 yards (90-T.Watt). FUMBLES (90-T.Watt) [90-T.Watt], RECOVERED by PIT-51-N.Herbig at CHI -1. TOUCHDOWN. PIT 13 – CHI 7
  • Q2 04:00 TD CHI (4:00) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 84-C.Loveland for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 14 – CHI 13
  • Q2 01:23 TD PIT (1:23) 30-J.Warren right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CHI-94-A.Booker, Defensive Offside, declined. PIT 20 – CHI 14
  • Q2 00:03 FG CHI (:03) 8-C.Santos 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. PIT 21 – CHI 17
  • Q3 08:33 TD CHI (8:33) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep right to 2-D.Moore for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PIT-33-J.Sawyer, Defensive Offside, declined. PIT 21 – CHI 23
  • Q4 14:16 TD CHI (14:16) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 21 – CHI 30
  • Q4 06:32 TD PIT (6:32) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short middle to 88-P.Freiermuth for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 27 – CHI 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 6 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (13:30) 19-T.Taylor punts 58 yards to PIT 9, Center-46-S.Daly. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at PIT 21 for 12 yards (92-D.Hardy).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 81%

    (8:55) Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 83-Co.Heyward up the middle to CHI 30 for no gain (45-A.Ogbongbemiga; 26-N.Wright).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (7:53) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams left end pushed ob at CHI 47 for 8 yards (5-J.Ramsey).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (1:32) Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 14-K.Gainwell right end for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 14-K.Gainwell right end pushed ob at CHI 1 for 55 yards (31-K.Byard).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 20 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (11:23) 3-C.Waitman punts 34 yards to CHI 40, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 3 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (6:30) 3-C.Waitman punts 39 yards to CHI 27, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (5:17) 19-T.Taylor punts 42 yards to PIT 22, Center-46-S.Daly. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at PIT 34 for 12 yards (43-C.Jones).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (4:46) 19-T.Taylor punts 49 yards to PIT 11, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-39-J.Blackwell.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 9 at the 77 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (2:01) 3-C.Waitman punts 33 yards to CHI 44, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-44-C.Bruener.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 7 at the 53 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 28%

    (1:36) 19-T.Taylor punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-S.Daly, Touchback.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 47 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 42%

    (:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass incomplete short left to 4-D.Metcalf (9-J.Brisker).