Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 77

Pittsburgh Steelers 28 – Chicago Bears 31

(2:01) 3-C.Waitman punts 33 yards to CHI 44, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-44-C.Bruener.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.34 EP
61% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 77, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model