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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 61

Chicago Bears 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(7:53) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams left end pushed ob at CHI 47 for 8 yards (5-J.Ramsey).

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.25 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model