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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 56

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(1:32) Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 14-K.Gainwell right end for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 14-K.Gainwell right end pushed ob at CHI 1 for 55 yards (31-K.Byard).

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.06 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 56, worth -2.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 17, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model